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Who could form the next government? What each party has said

Under MMP, the party vote is only half the story: a government needs a majority of seats, usually 61. Here is what each party has said about who it will and will not work with, with sources.

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How a government is formed

  • New Zealand has been governed since November 2023 by a coalition of National, ACT and NZ First, led by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon. (1News)
  • Parliament normally has 120 seats: 71 electorate seats and 49 list seats. Extra overhang seats are added when a party wins more electorates than its party vote entitles it to. (RNZ)
  • A government needs a majority of seats: 61 in a 120-seat Parliament, or more if there is an overhang. After the 2023 election Parliament had 122 seats, so 62 were needed. (RNZ)
  • A party only gets its share of seats if it wins at least 5% of the party vote or wins an electorate seat. (Electoral Act 1993, section 191)

So the party with the most votes does not automatically govern. What matters is which group of parties can reach a majority together, and that depends on what they have said about each other. The latest polls show how close each party is, and our guide to how MMP works explains the rules in more detail.

What each party has said

Statements as reported, checked 21 October 2026. Select a source to read the original. Parties can and do change position after election night.

National

Led by Christopher Luxon

  • Would work with ACT and NZ First again.“we're open to working with them again obviously post an election”NZ Herald, 21 January
  • Ruled out the Greens.“We're not going to be working with the Greens, they have a radical left-wing agenda”NZ Herald, 21 January
  • Ruled out Te Pāti Māori.“We won't be working with Te Pāti Māori because they've got a separatist agenda”NZ Herald, 21 January
  • Ruled out a grand coalition with Labour.“That would be insanity”Stuff, 11 May
  • Ruled out Opportunity over its tax policies, and the Prime Minister's office repeated this on 15 October.“we don't want to do business with parties that want to increase taxes”The Spinoff, 28 July

On 15 October Luxon told a Greymouth audience he would work with "whoever" was needed. His office said the same day that he meant ACT and NZ First and that Opportunity is still ruled out (NZ Herald).

National policies 2026, with sources →

Labour

Led by Chris Hipkins

  • Will keep working with the Greens, and is open to Opportunity.“Labour's door is open to [Opportunity], and we will of course continue our working relationship with the Greens”NZ Herald, 12 August
  • Could work with Te Pāti Māori, but says senior roles for it are unlikely.“While we could work with Te Pāti Māori should they be part of the next Parliament, senior roles for them in Government are unlikely”NZ Herald, 12 August
  • Ruled out NZ First.“Winston Peters has ruled us out. I'm happy to rule him out.”1News, 10 August
  • Will not work with any of the current governing parties, which includes ACT.“I won't work with any of the parties in the Government right now”NZ Herald, 12 August
  • In the Herald leaders' debate, Hipkins said he could rule out giving the Greens or Te Pāti Māori the police or corrections portfolios.NZ Herald, 14 October

Labour's tone on Te Pāti Māori has shifted. In October 2025 Hipkins said it was "a long way away" from being ready for government; in August 2026 he said Labour could work with it; on 15 October campaign chair Kieran McAnulty said he would rather work with Opportunity than Te Pāti Māori (interest.co.nz). Labour has not ruled it out.

Labour policies 2026, with sources →

Green Party

Led by Chlöe Swarbrick and Marama Davidson

  • Appeared with Labour at Waitangi to signal the two parties would work together.RNZ, 3 February
  • Will not help return Christopher Luxon as Prime Minister.“We are not interested in reinstalling Christopher Luxon as Prime Minister”NZ Herald, 13 October
  • Would seek portfolios including finance, energy and climate change, though Swarbrick says finance is not a bottom line.“I haven't said that that's a bottom line”interest.co.nz, 30 September

Labour has said the finance portfolio would stay with Labour in a Labour-led government (NZ Herald, 6 October).

Green Party policies 2026, with sources →

ACT

Led by David Seymour

  • Its first stated campaign mission is keeping Labour out of government.“One: Lock Labour Out.”Scoop (ACT speech), 28 June
  • Set a demand for any coalition talks: fewer ministers and government departments.“We will be taking a simple message to any coalition negotiation, 18 ministers 19 departments.”Scoop (ACT speech), 28 June
  • Said a coalition that also included Opportunity, if it reaches 5%, would be acceptable to keep the Greens and Te Pāti Māori out.“would be a good outcome”RNZ, 16 October

On Opportunity, ACT's position differs from its current partner National, which has ruled Opportunity out.

ACT policies 2026, with sources →

NZ First

Led by Winston Peters

  • Ruled out a deal with Labour and the parties it works with.“No, we won't do a deal with Labour or their Marxist and separatist mates.”The Spinoff, 29 April
  • Dismissed Opportunity's published bottom lines.“The inexperience and political naivety of TOP is on full show.”1News, 29 September

Peters has said that apart from 2023 he has never named before an election which parties he would rule out (The Spinoff, April 2026). We found no published NZ First bottom lines for coalition talks.

NZ First policies 2026, with sources →

Te Pāti Māori

Led by Rawiri Waititi and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer

  • Is campaigning for the electorate vote only, and asks supporters to give their party vote to the Greens or Labour.“cast their candidate vote for Te Pāti Māori and party vote for Green or Labour”1News, 4 October
  • Its stated aim is to remove the current Government.“You have the power to bring this Government to its knees”NZ Herald, 16 August
  • Says it will discuss any arrangement after the election.“Te Pāti Māori will have that conversation on 8th November”NZ Herald, 12 August
Te Pāti Māori policies 2026, with sources →

Opportunity

Led by Qiulae Wong

  • Willing to work with any party, including National.“willing to work with all parties, including National”1News, 13 August
  • Published five bottom lines: stronger Commerce Commission powers over supermarkets and other markets, lobbying rules and donation caps, a 10-year health plan, phasing out bottom trawling, and recommitting to the Paris Agreement and the Climate Change Commission. A land tax and citizen's income are not among them.“These are the minimum commitments we will require from the next government in return for our support”1News, 29 September
  • Will not support a government with Winston Peters as Foreign Minister.“We will not support a government where Winston Peters is the foreign minister.”Newsroom, 30 September
  • Would talk first to whichever major party is largest on election night.“We've said that we will still pick up the phone if they are the largest party on the night.”RNZ, 21 October

Opportunity says it is open to National, but National has ruled Opportunity out. Wong said on 16 October that she does not believe that rule-out will hold (RNZ).

Opportunity policies 2026, with sources →

What this means for your vote

Your party vote decides the size of each party, and the size of each party decides which deals are possible. A vote for a smaller party only counts towards seats if that party clears 5% or wins an electorate.

Coalition talk tells you who a party might govern with, not what it stands for. If you are choosing between parties, compare their actual positions first. The quiz does that question by question, and every party's policies are on one page with sources.

Find out which party actually matches you

Coalition deals come after the vote. Your vote comes first. Answer 37 questions and see how your views compare with every party in Parliament.