NZ election polls 2026
Every nationwide party-vote poll published since August, newest first, each linked to where it was published. No projections, no spin. The election is on Saturday 7 November.
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Party-vote percentages exactly as each pollster published them. A dash means the party's figure was not reported. Select a party name to read its policies.
| Poll | Published | National | Labour | Green | ACT | NZ First | Te Pāti Māori | Opportunity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Verian for 1News Fieldwork 15 to 19 Oct · 1,003 people · ±3.1% | 20 Oct | 32% | 27% | 16% | 11% | 8% | <1% | 7% |
| Freshwater Strategy for The Post Fieldwork 9 to 19 Oct · 1,458 people · ±3% | 20 Oct | 27.6% | 28.7% | 14.3% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 2.0% | 5.4% |
| Anacta (formerly Talbot Mills) Fieldwork 6 to 10 Oct · 1,352 people · ±2.7% | 16 Oct | 28% | 29% | 15% | 9% | 10% | 2% | 5% |
| Verian for 1News Fieldwork 8 to 12 Oct · 1,007 people · ±3.1% | 13 Oct | 28.0% | 28.0% | 15.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 0.4% | 8.0% |
| Curia for the Taxpayers' Union Fieldwork 1 to 5 Oct · 1,000 people · ±3.1% | 8 Oct | 28.5% | 28.2% | 13.3% | 9.2% | 12.0% | 1.4% | 4.8% |
| Verian for 1News Fieldwork 1 to 5 Oct · 1,001 people · ±3.1% | 6 Oct | 29% | 28% | 16% | 9% | 10% | 1% | 7% |
| Reid Research for RNZ Fieldwork 24 Sep to 1 Oct · 1,000 people · ±3.1% | 6 Oct | 25.9% | 30.8% | 14.8% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 2.0% | 5.5% |
| Roy Morgan Fieldwork 31 Aug to 27 Sep · 859 people | 6 Oct | 31.0% | 23.5% | 16.0% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 2.0% | 6.5% |
| Verian for 1News Fieldwork 23 to 27 Sep · 1,004 people | 28 Sept | 28% | 28% | 16% | 11% | 9% | - | 6% |
| Freshwater Strategy for The Post Fieldwork 4 to 11 Sep · 1,011 people · ±3% | 15 Sept | 26.5% | 28.0% | 13.6% | 8.7% | 12.6% | 2.2% | 6.3% |
| Anacta (formerly Talbot Mills) Fieldwork 4 to 10 Sep · 1,701 people · ±2.4% | 15 Sept | 30% | 31% | 12% | 8% | 10% | 2% | 7% |
| Curia for the Taxpayers' Union Fieldwork 1 to 3 Sep · 1,000 people · ±3.1% | 7 Sept | 29.0% | 25.9% | 13.9% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 2.0% | 4.5% |
| Roy Morgan Fieldwork 27 Jul to 23 Aug · 858 people | 31 Aug | 31.0% | 24.0% | 15.5% | 10.5% | 7.5% | 1.5% | 9.5% |
| Reid Research for RNZ Fieldwork 14 to 21 Aug · 1,000 people · ±3.1% | 24 Aug | 29.1% | 32.2% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 11.9% | 3.0% | 5.3% |
| Talbot Mills Fieldwork 1 to 11 Aug · ±3.1% | 14 Aug | 29% | 34% | 8% | 7% | 13% | 3% | 5% |
| Verian for 1News Fieldwork 8 to 11 Aug · 847 people · ±3.4% | 12 Aug | 29% | 30% | 12% | 9% | 8% | 1% | 8% |
| Curia for the Taxpayers' Union Fieldwork 1 to 4 Aug · 1,000 people · ±3.1% | 7 Aug | 31.0% | 27.8% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 1.5% | 6.1% |
| Roy Morgan Fieldwork 29 Jun to 26 Jul · 881 people | 4 Aug | 32.0% | 25.5% | 13.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 2.0% | 8.0% |
Select a pollster to open the original report. Polls are added when they are published.
How to read these numbers
A poll is a snapshot, not a forecast. Each one asks around a thousand people how they would vote if the election were held that day. With a sample that size, a party's real support could sit around three points either side of its published figure, so a move of one or two points between polls is usually noise.
The 5% line matters. Under MMP a party needs 5% of the party vote, or to win an electorate seat, to get its share of seats in Parliament. That is why small parties polling near 5% get so much attention. Our guide to how MMP works explains the rules.
Governments are built from seats, not percentages. A party can top the poll and still not lead the next government if it cannot reach 61 seats with partners. See who could form the next government for what each party has said about working together.
We do not average polls or project seats. Different pollsters ask in different ways, and blending them adds a layer of judgement this page is designed to leave out.
Polls tell you who is popular, not who matches you
Before you decide, check each party's actual positions:
Popular is not the same as right for you
The quiz compares your views with what each party has actually published, question by question. Five minutes, free, no sign-up.